Are invisible voters being lost by the political pollsters?

I had a pretty strong gut sense that Barack Obama was far ahead in Iowa back in early November at the Jefferson Jackson Day Banquet. It seemed as though the Obama supporters outnumbered other groups by 2:1.  RadioIowa the blog seemed to pick up on the same feeling.  At the same time in November the pollsters seemed to tell us otherwise. (KCRG in Cedar Rapids had Clinton leading; ABCNews had Clinton leading big in 4 groups of Democratic voters; the CBS News/New York Times Poll said the same; and CNN was reporting a “stunning double-digit lead” for Clinton.

The old saying “It depends on whom you ask” might be the key here. In 2008 is much of the electorate invisible? Now I am definitely not invisible. I was called – frequently. Of course I showed up in the polling numbers. I am a registered voter, with a land-line phone, and I was home when they called. Plus I was willing to talk. (No surprise there, eh?)

So who didn’t get called? It looks like a lot of people who showed up at the caucuses didn’t get called. Many had never voted before. How many of them have only cell phones? The Pew Foundation reported nearly two years ago some of the newer challenges to pollsters based on the cell phone. It costs money to talk. One of the more interesting points of the Pew report was the very large differences between landline and cell phone users in their willingness to participate in polling.  (You will have to jump down to Challenges of Cell Phone Interviews to see this part of the report.) Were these some of the people missed?

Did any of the polls use text messaging? If text messaging had been used, I’m afraid they would have missed me. But if the pollsters had used text messaging, they would have reported results from a totally different group of people. However gaining information from those for whom this is a routine communication tool would be difficult.

But what do I know? It’s a new world and I’m a little behind. I’m just an old-timer with a landline who sits at home on Sundays waiting to be called.

Guest Writer: James G. Lindberg (Jim) is the the Purple Wren’s sweetie and is a visiting chemistry professor at Grinnell College and retired from Drake University.

[tags] Iowa, Des Moines, Des Moines News, Invisible Voters, Pollsters [/tags]